Our R&D show that as of 3Q2021, there is positive dynamics especially on the mixed projects market (residential & retail) for the retail premises supply. It is our opinion that new deliveries of modern retail premises in the first three quarters of 2021 amounted to over 25 thousand sq m. A new project (Oasis Mall) has been commissioned in second half of 2021 (around 11 thousand sq m gross area). We assume there are over 50 thousand square meters of both modern and mixed retail projects to be rolled out in 2022 and they will mainly target established local brands that are already exiting class C shopping centers. We also believe that in the next 5 years there is high probability of a new shopping center (mall) establishment in Chisinau and this project will impact second and third generation shopping centers irrevocably. It is our estimation that prime rents in 1H21 have stayed close to 2020 yearend level, meaning close to 45 EUR/sqm in shopping malls and close 35 EUR/sqm in prime street locations.
For the end of 2021 we see the modern stock of retail premises at cca. 550 thousand square meters. Over 65% of the modern stock are grocery chains and home inventories stores. As one may assume, virtually all new residential complexes offer for sale or rent retail outlets, the largest ones being dedicated to national grocery chains.
Regionally, the stock of retail premise is on the rise as well. Romania’s modern retail stock reached 3.98 mln. sq m at the end of the third quarter of 2021, gathering as retail formats both shopping centers and retail parks. The year-to-date new supply amounts 40,900 sq m, the combined surfaces of four retail parks welcomed throughout Romania. Retail parks account for over 80% of new developments. At the end of Q3 2021, prime rents maintained at the same level YoY, respectively at 70 EUR/ sq m/month in the shopping centers, and at 45 EUR/ sq m/month in high street locations.